Over the past month, Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market has decreased by 3.5%, and indices tracking its dynamics in comparison with altcoins have entered the so-called “alt season” zone.
Altcoins come to the fore
In recent weeks, interest in memecoins and other “alts” has noticeably increased. Social networks are actively discussing the beginning of a new growth cycle, and this is largely due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will lower the key rate at the next meeting. If the forecast comes true, demand for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, could grow significantly.
Indices and market dynamics
According to CoinMarketCap and CoinGlass, the alt season index is already signaling that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin in terms of profitability. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has gained only 0.3%, while the CoinDesk Memcoin Index (CDMEME) jumped by 7.1%. SHIB and BONE made the main contribution: after the launch of the second version of the Shibarium network, which had previously faced an attack via flash loans, the tokens unexpectedly showed a sharp increase.
Why capital is going to “alts”
Lower interest rates make conservative instruments like government bonds less attractive. As a result, investors begin to look for profitability in riskier assets, which triggers a rotation of capital in the market – from bitcoin to altcoins.
Probability of Fed action
On the Polymarket platform, participants are laying down a 92% probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points already this month. CME FedWatch estimates the chances similarly: almost 93% for a soft cut and about 7% for a more aggressive step of 50 points.
If U.S. regulators approve new altcoin ETFs, including Dogecoin funds and even a “Trump ETF,” the market could see an influx of both retail and institutional investors. Already active Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. have seen multibillion-dollar capital inflows, and experts believe altcoins could replicate that success.
